Illustration: Chen Xia/GT
In a recent interview with the Australian broadcaster ABC's Sunday "Insiders" program, Adam Bandt, head of the Australian Greens Party, strappingly criticized the AUKUS submarine deal, appealing to the Anthony Albanese government to extricate itself out of the tripartite pact, which has been expected to cost Australia up to A$368 billion ($233 billion). Echoing the Greens leader's denunciation, in a separate interview, Australia's former prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull also censured AUKUS as a bad deal, pointing out that it would only jeopardize Australia's "sovereignty and security," as well as the national finance.
The AUKUS agreement is intended to equip Australia with a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, beginning with the proposed procurement of three Virginia-class submarines from the US as the first installment, followed by the cooperative construction of new AUKUS-class undersea boats by the UK and Australia in the future. This arsenal-building plan has raised eyebrows among many strategists and politicians from the outset, as its objectives are dubious and its delivery schedule remains indeterminate.
The nuclear-powered submarine project was initiated by Australia's then Liberal-National Coalition administration and later endorsed and carried out by the succeeding Labor government. First of all, it is pronounced that the submarines would come into the defense of the territorial security of Australia.
However, as is known to any with military common sense, the only advantage of nuclear-powered submarines lies in their ability to travel discreetly over long distances under the sea, without the need to surface for three to four months. In other words, the objective for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines is more about the long-range projection of its military capacity than its own territorial protection.
In his 2024 book, Nuked, the Australian political commentator and strategic analyst Andrew Fowler concludes that the AUKUS initiative has actually little to do with the defense of Australia. As the former Australian senator Rex Patrick pointed out incisively, a number of serious risks have materialized in the AUKUS submarine program, yet the Australian government is just "sleepwalking towards disasters."
As a matter of fact, under AUKUS, Australia is being manipulated as a chess piece, poised to be thrust to the forefront in a potential US military maneuver against China. This arrangement is not intended for Australia's national security defense or its own national interests.
To date, Australia has already paid $500 million as the first installment of a total of $3 billion in order to support the US submarine industrial manufacturing base. However, there is no guarantee from Washington that the US would deliver the Virginia-class submarines that Australia wants to purchase. No wonder Turnbull exclaimed in indignation that it is an "unfair" and "terrible" deal that benefits only the US.
The US Navy is said to be currently 20 percent short of its capacity of submarines. Therefore, the AUKUS agreement stipulates that Washington would first make assessments if the delivery of the three submarines would likely degrade its own naval capabilities. It is totally at the US' discretion whether or not it fulfills the purchase contract.
Under the current Trump 2.0 administration, whose MAGA doctrines precede US interests, before anything and anyone else, it is highly probable that for all its economic investments, political expenses and security risks, Australia would ultimately get nothing at all.
China and Australia are comprehensive strategic partners. Since December 1972 when the two countries established a diplomatic relationship, bilateral ties have developed dynamically and profitably to the benefit of both countries and their peoples. China has been Australia's largest trade partner since 2009. In the current context of global political and economic uncertainties, it is vital for the two countries to sensibly preserve the soundness of bilateral relations, which are critical for the peace, stability and prosperity of both the region and the world.
Today's geostrategic reality is distinctly characterized by multipolarity. The outdated Cold War mind-set, which advocated a zero-sum game, is now obsolete and potentially dangerous to world peace and development.
It is a strategic misconception and misjudgment for Canberra to view and position China as a prospective adversary and to engage in a senseless and futile arms race in order to fight a US war for the US' hegemonism.
The author is a professor and director of the Australian Studies Centre at East China Normal University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
