US, Russia hold cease-fire talks; expert says limited cease-fire possible, permanent agreement requires substantial concession from one side
WORLD / EUROPE
US, Russia hold cease-fire talks; expert says limited cease-fire possible, permanent agreement requires substantial concession from one side
Published: Mar 25, 2025 12:06 AM
In this handout video grab released by the Russian Foreign Ministry, a car carrying Russian officials arrives at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel, before a meeting of delegations from the United States and Russia in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on March 24, 2025.? Photo: VCG

In this handout video grab released by the Russian Foreign Ministry, a car carrying Russian officials arrives at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel, before a meeting of delegations from the United States and Russia in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on March 24, 2025. Photo: VCG


US and Russian officials began talks in Saudi Arabia on Monday, following US negotiations with Ukraine on Sunday, aimed at making progress toward a broad cease-fire in Ukraine with Washington eyeing a separate Black Sea maritime cease-fire deal before securing a wider agreement, according to the Reuters. 

Chinese experts said that a limited cease-fire framework may be reached by April 20, covering areas such as energy infrastructure and Black Sea grain transport. However, a lasting peace agreement faces significant challenges, as there are large differences in the demands of both sides, and one side would need to make substantial concessions.

The US hopes to reach a broad cease-fire within weeks, targeting a truce agreement by April 20, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday, citing people familiar with the planning. 

A source briefed on the planning for the talks said the US side was being led by Andrew Peek, a senior director at the White House National Security Council, and Michael Anton, a senior State Department official, Reuters reported.

Russia delegation represented by Grigory Karasin, a former diplomat who is now chair of the Federation Council's Foreign Affairs Committee, and Sergei Beseda, an adviser to the director of the Federal Security Service, according to Reuters.

White House National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said in an interview on CBS's "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" on Sunday that the US, Russian, and Ukrainian delegations were assembled in the same facility in Riyadh.

"We're closer to peace than we've ever been," he said, further noting that after the US President Donald Trump's call with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, a cease-fire on aerial infrastructure was established. He explained that the next step would be a discussion about a Black Sea maritime cease-fire, allowing both sides to transport grain, fuel, and resume trade in the region.

Waltz also mentioned that the focus would shift to the line of control—the actual front lines—which would involve discussions on verification mechanisms and peacekeeping, with the goal of freezing the lines where they are. "

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia and the US had a common understanding on the need to move toward a settlement to end the war in Ukraine but that there were still many different aspects that need to be worked out, Reuters reported.

Peskov said that the "Black Sea Initiative," more commonly known as the grain deal, was on the agenda at talks in Saudi Arabia between Russian and US officials on Monday. "This is primarily about the safety of navigation," Peskov said, when asked what the Black Sea deal amounted to, Reuters reported.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the meeting between Ukrainian and US delegations in Saudi Arabia was "constructive and beneficial," with progress made on key issues, in his evening address on Sunday, according to the Kyiv Independent.

As Reuters revealed, the issues discussed in US talks with Ukraine and Russia include ending attacks on energy infrastructure, nuclear power plants, Black Sea shipping, and prisoner exchanges. Yang Jin, an associate research fellow at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European, and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times that the key issue in the ongoing US-Russia talks is whether Moscow can accept the consensus reached between Washington and Kyiv. 

"The discussions are expected to focus on how to implement and monitor a first-phase cease-fire based on the US-Ukraine agreement," Yang said, noting that the significant gap between the demands of both sides remains a major obstacle.

At the same time, Russia launched its third consecutive overnight air attack on Kyiv, wounding one person and damaging several houses in the region surrounding the Ukrainian capital, a Kyiv's regional governor said on Monday, Reuters reported.

Tass News Agency also reported on Monday that "There was a massive Ukrainian attack on Donetsk in the early morning, air defenses worked."

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered a phase where battlefield developments are shaping the course of negotiations, Sun Xiuwen, an associate professor at the Institute for Central Asian Studies at Lanzhou University told the Global Times on Monday. 

"If the frontline situation remains largely unchanged, a limited cease-fire framework could be reached by April 20, covering key areas such as a halt to attacks on energy infrastructure and the resumption of Black Sea grain shipments. However, achieving a lasting peace agreement remains a formidable challenge, as it would require one side to make significant concessions," said Sun.

Sun further explained that if the Black Sea Grain Initiative is revived, Russia would export farm produce and fertilizer through the Black Sea, getting a relief from sanctions imposed by Western countries.

"The contacts between Trump and Putin have spooked European leaders," Reuters reported. 

Britain and France are leading European efforts to beef up military and logistical support for Ukraine, and a number of countries have announced plans to increase defense spending as they try to reduce their reliance on the US, said the Reuters.

On the issue of a cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe and the US have differing demands, creating a delicate balance at the moment, Yang said, noting that while cracks have emerged in transatlantic relations, internal divisions within Europe and its structural weaknesses make it difficult for the continent to break free from its dependence on the US in the short term.
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