China's GDP grew by 5.4 percent in the first quarter of 2025, higher than broad market expectations as the world's second-largest economy got off to a very strong start and laid a solid foundation for the economy to achieve its goal of growing around 5 percent for the whole year, despite escalating US tariff pressures.
The growth rate, driven by exports, robust growth in high-tech industrial output and domestic consumption, consolidated China's status as one of the fastest growing major economies in the world and positioned the country to better weather global uncertainties, Chinese analysts said.
The steady growth of Chinese economy in the first quarter, amid looming tariff war launched by the US and expected impacts on world trade in the second quarter, injected much-needed stability and positive momentum to global economic growth, underscoring the country's role as the major engine of the global economic recovery, they noted.
Hard-won results
The country's GDP grew to 31.88 trillion yuan ($4.35 trillion) in the first quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The growth rate beat a forecast of 5.1 percent by economists polled by Reuters, and the country has targeted its full-year economic growth at around 5 percent for this year.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, China's GDP grew by 1.2 percent in the first quarter, the NBS said.
Retail sales grew 4.6 percent year-on-year to 12.47 trillion yuan ($1.7 trillion) in the first quarter, while industrial added-value was up 6.5 percent, and fixed-asset investment climbed by 4.2 percent, according to data released by the NBS on Wednesday.
Compared with the growth rate last year, retail sales growth in the quarter sped by 1.1 percentage points, while industrial added-value accelerated by 0.7 percentage points. Fixed-asset investment growth was up 1 percentage point.
The surveyed urban jobless rate came in at 5.2 percent in March, down from 5.4 percent in February, according to the NBS.
Since the beginning of the year, macroeconomic policies have yielded tangible results, efforts in creating a new pattern of development sped up, cultivation of new quality productive forces accelerated, and social expectations and confidence have improved - the national economy was off to a good start and the high-quality development was advancing with new and positive momentum, Sheng Laiyun, deputy head of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said at a press conference on Wednesday.
CNN reported that China posted "unexpectedly strong economic growth," the Financial Times reported that "China defies Trump tariffs" with strong first-quarter growth and Al Jazeera reported the growth rate beat forecasts.
Almost all news outlets pointed out the tariff looms, which is expected to have its full effects shown in the coming months.
The better-than-expected first quarter performance is hard-won, and reflects the resilience of the Chinese economy and the attractiveness of its vast market even as the country is bracing for global volatilities and disruptions caused by US government's reckless tariff policy, Chen Fengying, a research fellow at the Beijing-based China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, told the Global Times.
Resilience and stability
"Growth in consumption, investment, industrial output, together with a boom in technological innovations highlighted by the wide application of DeepSeek, as well as the boost in confidence in the private sector and foreign-funded companies, are proved to be key drivers supporting first-quarter growth," Chen said. "The 5.4-percnet GDP growth signals a very strong start for the world's second-largest economy."
Chen added that the first-quarter foreign trade data also displayed a strong resilience and the country's stock market has weathered external shocks.
Sun Chuanwang, a professor at Xiamen University, told the Global Times on Wednesday that China's economy has further consolidated its growth momentum in the first quarter by drawing strengths from industrial production and continued policy support amid an overall low growth rate of global economy, demonstrating its high resilience despite headwinds and mounting external uncertainties.
The robust growth figure has contrasted with dim growth prospect of the US. According to CNBC Rapid Update, the US economy is forecast to grow at an anemic 0.3 percent, the weakest growth since 2022, compared with the 2.3 percent reported in the fourth quarter of 2024 amid policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs.
The GDP data was announced as the US' imposition of tariffs on its trading partners has dampened global trade growth outlook, with the WTO warning the trade row cutting the shipment of goods between world's two largest economies by as much as 80 percent.
Responding to a question on the impact of US tariffs, Sheng said the high tariffs imposed by the US will exert certain pressures on China's trade and the economy in the short term, but it won't alter the Chinese economy's long-term positive trajectory.
Citing the Chinese economy's solid fundamentals and resilience, Sheng said the country has the confidence and capability to tackle external challenges and achieve its economic development goals.
Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has weathered significant challenges, such as the Asian financial crisis, China-US trade frictions, and the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in recent years. However, we have overcome these difficulties and accumulated valuable experience in macroeconomic regulation, Sheng said.
Looking into the second quarter, Sun said the government should assist industries and companies to look for alternative markets, such as those in Latin America, the ASEAN and the Middle East in a diversification drive to reduce dependence on any single market, and to strengthen regional cooperation to buffer the impact of US tariffs.
Targeted financial support should be provided promptly to companies facing cash flow challenges to cushion shocks to production and employment, the expert said.
As external shocks put pressure on the economy, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said at a symposium with economic experts and entrepreneurs last week that China is well prepared to address all uncertainties.
Ensuring effective economic management in the second quarter and beyond is crucial, Li stressed, calling for sustained efforts and timely implementation of proactive macro policies and new incremental measures based on evolving needs.
On Tuesday, the Premier further called for greater efforts to boost consumption, expand domestic demand, strengthen domestic circulation, and further unleash the vitality and potential of China's ultra-large market to address challenges posed by external shocks.
The country's corporate sector has already been making moves under the guidance of the government.
Retailers across China, including the country's largest online e-commerce platforms such as JD.com, have rolled out measures to help exporters tap vast domestic market.
The General Administration of Customs on Tuesday held a meeting with exporters, trading companies and representatives from industry associations to learn about companies' operation, efforts on stabilizing orders and expanding into new markets, according to a statement posted on GAC website.
Wang Lizong, president of the Guangdong High-tech Industry Chamber of Commerce, told the Global Times on Wednesday that the dozens of companies he visited have held numerous meetings in the past week to work out ways to cope with the impacts caused by US tariff hikes, and diversification tops most discussions.
Anchor of stability
A number of positive data preceded the first quarter GDP data.
China's total social financing reached 422.96 trillion yuan as of the end-March, up 8.4 percent year-on-year, the People's Bank of China said on Sunday, reflecting increased monetary support to the real economy which is improving under supportive policies.
In another sign of economic vitality, Chinese border authorities processed 163 million entries and exits during the first quarter, marking an increase of 15.3 percent year-on-year, the National Immigration Administration data showed on Tuesday.
This week, the fifth China International Consumer Products Expo was attended by 65 Fortune Global 500 companies and over 4,100 consumer brands, a record high in its history. At the Canton Fair, nearly 73,000 booths are dedicated to export-related displays and the number of exhibitors surpasses 30,000 for the first time.
Despite an increasingly complex and challenging external environment, China, backed up with its stable economic performance, will continue to be the indisputable anchor of stability for the global economy, Chen said, noting that the implementation of more supportive monetary and fiscal policies will help maintain the upward growth momentum in the second quarter.
